PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles A collection of blog articles about the most important topics in US and world green energy, economy, technology, environment, and Policy issues delivered by others in the community http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Articles/Oil/ Mon, 06 Feb 2012 05:48:23 -0800 Joomla! 1.5 - Open Source Content Management en-gb PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Oil-Search-Exxon-lead-gas-race-with-$2.5bn-PNG-deal.html coal seam gas that has been discovered onshore in Oz, the joint venturers in New Guinea are making progress on exporting the gas in the form of LNG to other destinations in the Asia Pacific region. the Australian reports - Oil Search, Exxon lead gas race with $2.5bn PNG deal.
OIL Search and Exxon Mobil have cemented themselves as the frontrunners in the race for the region"s next big gas export scheme after signing agreements to sell more than $US2 billion ($2.48bn) worth of liquefied natural gas a year from their PNG LNG project.

The project, run by Exxon and expected to cost $US12bn to develop, will supply 4.3 million tonnes of LNG a year to three Asian customers at an undisclosed price.

Japan"s Tokyo Electric Power and Osaka Gas are two of the buyers, while the other is understood to be Taiwanese.

Two million tonnes a year have already committed to China"s state-owned Sinopec. The two deals now account for the whole 6.3 million tonnes of LNG a year expected from the project in 2013 or 2014.

Sinopec, which has not been officially named as a buyer, is awaiting Chinese government approval. Exxon said it planned to sign binding deals by the end of the year.

The deals announced yesterday are the latest in a flurry of contracts as several major plants, including the massive Gorgon project in Western Australia and coal-seam gas-to-LNG plants at Gladstone, head for an investment decision this year or early next year.

Korea Gas previously said it was interested in buying from the PNG LNG project, as well as from Gorgon and Gladstone. ...

The PNG LNG project, like CSG-to-LNG projects planned by Santos and BG Group at Gladstone, is targeting unmet LNG demand around 2014 as some big regional agreements end.

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Oil Sat, 27 Jun 2009 06:22:00 -0700
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Iraqi-Oil-Update.html Iraq"s oil, or as they put it, they Iraqi government (although not the parliament) is holding a "welcome-back party for Big Oil" - Shahristani plan to help rebuild war-ravaged economy.
The government intends to auction off oil contracts to foreign companies for the first time since Iraq nationalised its oil industry more than three decades ago. If all goes according to plan in the first round, foreign oil companies will move in to help Iraq revive production at six developed fields that have suffered from years of war and neglect.

But Iraq"s fractious politics have complicated the process. Some lawmakers and oil officials have called for a delay of the auction. The man behind the plan, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, appeared before Parliament yesterday, where some lawmakers questioned the legality of the proposed contracts and what they called favourable terms for the foreign companies.

But the auction appears to have sufficient political support to go ahead on schedule, and Mr Shahristani and other government officials vowed to plow ahead.

Mr Shahristani"s oil deals are crucial to this war-torn country"s economy. Iraq is thought to have one of the world"s largest supplies of crude oil, with 115 billion barrels in proven reserves. But foreign know-how is the key to its plans to boost oil output to four million barrels a day within four to five years, from 2.4m barrels now.

Despite security risks, Western oil companies are clamoring to get in. Iraq is still relatively unexplored, offering big companies a potentially easy-to-tap source of growth. Some are touting Iraq as the most important opening of petroleum fields since the discovery in 2000 of the giant Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea.

Some 120 companies have expressed interest in bidding for the contracts at the June 29 and 30 auction, according to the Oil Ministry. Thirty-five companies qualified to bid, including Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Italy"s Eni, Russia"s Lukoil and China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec. The six oil fields at stake are believed to hold reserves of more than 43 billion barrels. Foreigners will not get the most prized piece of the action - ownership stakes in the reserves - but will be paid fees for ramping up output.

Just over 20 out of about 80 known oil fields in Iraq have been fully or partially developed, and most of its production comes from just three giants, north and south Rumaila and Kirkuk. Because lots of the black gold is considered relatively easy to extract, oil experts estimate that exploration and development in Iraq costs $US1.50 to $US2.25 ($1.60) a barrel, compared with about $US5 in Malaysia or $US20 in Canada. ...


Western oil companies were kicked out of Iraq in 1972, amid of a wave of nationalisation of Middle East petroleum. Oil production hit at least three million bpd before Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, then fell sharply to 300,000 barrels after economic sanctions and trade embargoes were imposed. Production rebounded to about 2.5 million barrels before the US invasion in 2003.

Iraqi lawmakers have squabbled for years over a draft petroleum law that would set a legal framework for foreign companies to start drilling again. Tired of waiting, Mr Shahristani in 2008 unilaterally invited oil companies to bid on contracts. As global companies are reluctant to explore undeveloped fields in Iraq without an oil law, Mr Shahristani has focused on getting foreign help to pump from existing fields.

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Oil Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:29:00 -0700
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/China-to-Construct-8-Strategic-Oil-Reserve-Bases.html China to Construct 8 Strategic Oil Reserve Bases.
China plans to start constructing 8 more strategic oil reserve bases this year, after the first batch of four have gone into operation in 2008, authoritative sources disclosed.

China started to construct its first batch of strategic oil reserve bases from 2003, altogether four in Zhenhai, Zhoushan, Huangdao and Dalian, respectively. Zhenhai and Zhoushan two strategic oil reserve bases have been in operation for nearly two years; while Huangdao and Dalian bases have gone into operation at the end of 2008. By November 2008, Huangdao base has had 40 percent of its oil tanks filled with crude oil.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China"s top economic planner, announced in 2008 that the plan for second-batch oil reserve base construction with combined storage capacity reaching 26.8 million cubic meters has been completed. And construction of 8 strategic oil reserve bases including Jinzhou is expected to start in 2009.

However, no official information concerning specific sites of the 8 bases in the second batch to be constructed has been disclosed.

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Oil Mon, 09 Feb 2009 07:01:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Peak-oil-investment-verities.html Jim Grant likes to say that knowledge in the sciences is cumulative, but knowledge in finance is cyclical.

And, so it has been with the general run of so-called peak oil investment strategies. Their heavy reliance on energy-linked investments made them a boon to all who followed them at first. But in the last six months such investments have suffered catastrophic reversals. The underlying cause, of course, was a devastating and unprecedented swoon in prices for oil, natural gas, and coal. Even uranium prices came down sharply, but this occurred somewhat earlier. Not surprisingly, the share prices of alternative energy companies, which rely on high prices for conventional fuels in order to remain competitive, followed the price of these fuels down sharply as well.

Even a stalwart of some peak oil portfolios, gold, managed to decline in the face of an obvious crackup in the world financial system. Everything seemed to be going down at once. The cause, in part, was that those who borrowed huge sums to gamble in the markets (mostly hedge funds and investment banks) had to sell at any price to pay back their loans before their investment portfolios completely vaporized. Selling begat more selling begat more selling. And with the selling, confidence in the financial system ebbed. The fundamental cause, however, was a swiftly declining economy, finally toppling under the burden of massive debt that individuals, companies and governments are increasingly unable to pay back.

This is not to say that some individuals who take peak oil seriously have not done well with their investments. But their strategies had to have been different from simply holding energy-related investments for the long run. The expectation for many peak oil investors had been that energy prices would rise more or less continuously due to increasing demand and constrained supply. That has not worked out as planned. Lately, economic contraction has led to declining demand which has had more influence on energy prices than any perceived constraint on production. But, of course, this doesn"t mean that energy-laden investment portfolios might not prosper from this point on; no one can know for sure.

While the basic thesis of peak oil (and peak natural gas, coal and uranium for that matter) remains intact, its timing and exact effects continue to be elusive. Peak oil can still rightly qualify as a so-called "black swan event." The term, introduced to the public by former hedge fund manager and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan," denotes an unexpected and rare event of high impact which few people anticipate. It is precisely because few people anticipate it that is has high impact, and peak oil, though it is a better known concept today, remains poorly understood or unknown to the great majority of people on the planet.

The myriad factors that are leading us toward peak oil are not visible to any one observer. We can calculate, we can hypothesize, and we can prognosticate; but we cannot know for certain the date of its arrival or its ultimate effects on society and the markets. There will always be a gap between what we think we know and what we actually know.

The action in the investment markets ought to be a lesson for all those trying to envision what will happen in any complex system, especially one as complex as human society. Our powers of prediction are weak. We need to keep an open mind and observe carefully.

This doesn"t mean we shouldn"t try to plan or prepare or even invest. Humans are planning animals. But what they are really good at is improvisation. That"s why careful attention to what is right before us rather than what we imagine for the future is of critical importance. The kick in the pants that all those who followed the peak oil investment paradigm received last year (including me to a minor degree) is a reminder that we ought not to allow our fantasies of the future to dominate our every action in the here and now.

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Oil Sun, 25 Jan 2009 23:43:12 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Paying-Not-To-Drill.html first glimpses of the energy provisions of the proposed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009--better known as the stimulus package--and a rift within the US business community over the best way to set a price on greenhouse gas emissions, between a carbon tax and cap and trade. I"m sure I"ll come back to those topics soon, but I must admit the story that most intrigued me this week concerned an event last month, when a young environmentalist disrupted the quarterly oil & gas lease auction of the Utah office of the Bureau of Land Management by successfully bidding on a clutch of leases, the terms of which he at least initially seemed unlikely to be able to fulfill. In the process, he has become a momentary Internet celebrity, with his own website and organization, apparently raising $45,000 with which to make the first payment on the leases and thereby potentially avoid prosecution.

At the outset, let"s dispense with all the hyperbole about brave acts of civil disobedience in the cause of saving the planet. Let"s also be clear that nothing I say here in any way justifies walking into a duly-authorized auction of a department of the federal government and bidding for mineral leases without the ready means of paying for them. I am not qualified to assess whether Mr. DeChristopher broke the law, but I can certainly relate to the reaction of other bidders when the situation became clear. Nor am I inclined to accept the excuse that the ends justify the means in this case. Having said that, it"s hard not to admire the chutzpah that this took, at least a little bit.

According to the article in Monday"s Washington Post, Mr. DeChristopher, a.k.a. "Bidder 70" outbid the assembled oil and gas companies on 13 leases totaling 22,000 acres in "the scenic southeast corner of Utah." He bid a total of $1.8 million for these leases, roughly 25% of the total of $7.2 million of winning bonus bids received for the 148,598 acres sold. If he intends to keep these leases, then in addition to coming up with the remainder of the bonuses he bid, he would also need to pay the contractual rental on them, amounting to $33,000 per year for the first five years and $44,000 per year for the balance of the 10-year lease term--not "decades" as the Post"s reporter erroneously suggested. $45,000 is a good start, but he and his supporters would have to pony up another $2.1 million over the next decade to keep from defaulting, unless their strategy is merely to tie them up until the new administration halted leasing in the area, as noted in Mr. DeChristopher"s letter of January 9 to his supporters.

If we ignore for the moment the part about not having the $1.8 million in hand or in prospect when bidding, this event might actually offer a model by which concerned citizens or groups could preserve onshore or offshore acreage that they prefer not to see drilled, either out of concern for the viewscape or for the environmental consequences of the production and consumption of oil and gas--notwithstanding the implication that it would be produced elsewhere, possibly under less scrupulous conditions. If properly financed, such efforts would be a lot more constructive than tying up the leasing and permitting process in the courts, particularly from the perspective of taxpayers such as myself, who do not share their viewpoint. The outcome might still increase US oil imports, but at least without depriving the government of its income on the leases, although it would forgo the substantial increase in revenue that accrues if oil or gas are found and produced, when modest rental fees are superseded by the 12.5 % royalty rates applicable to such contracts. Oil and gas rents and royalties earned the federal government nearly $13 billion in 2008.

I will be very interested to see how this case turns out, and whether Mr. DeChristopher"s idea catches on--with the proviso that there is a crucial difference between backing up one"s beliefs with real money and merely gumming up the works at the expense of the rest of us.

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Oil Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:51:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Oil-Import-Interactive-Map-and-Energy-Consumption-over-Long-Time-Scales.html Rocky Mountain Institute has created an interesting way to view how oil imports into the U.S. have changed over time. You are able to see the magnitude of oil flowing from each exporting country for each month since 1973. Notice how imports from Iran go away after the second oil crisis.

Personally, I like to view view fossil fuel usage from a more historical perspective. The image below is a different "hockey stick" graph than the one most commonly referred to that shows CO2 or temperature increases in the last 30-40 years.

Figure 1. The world primary energy consumption and GDP over the last 300 years.


The image of Figure 1 shows the primary energy consumption and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The basic point here is that the large increase in energy consumption has only been enabled by fossil fuels. Notice the first steam engine was built in 1712 by Newcomen. What does this graph look like when we look over the time scale of human civilization? I would not call it a hockey stick shape any more, but perhaps a wall of energy consumption (see Figure 2). Think about energy independence and sustainability when you contemplate Figure 2.


Figure 2. The world primary energy consumption and GDP over the last 6000 years.

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Oil Tue, 13 Jan 2009 04:23:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/RMI-Introduces-New-Oil-Imports-Map.html RMI Introduces New Oil Imports Map.
Breaking our dependence on fossil fuels isn"t only a solution for halting our climate changing emissions, it"s also about gaining energy independence and being cautious about when we reach peak oil.

The Rocky Mountain Institute has created a new oil map web tool that intricately illustrates this concept. RMI partnered with Google to create a visual representation of how much oil the U.S. has imported, from where, and how much we have spent during every month since 1973.

The team at RMI reminds us that if we take control of our energy future, we can change the way this map looks. About five years ago, RMI"s Chief Scientist, Chairman and Co-founder Amory Lovins and a team of RMI collaborators wrote a roadmap for the United States to get completely off oil by 2050. The project resulted in a book called Winning the Oil Endgame. You can download it here.

Although disturbing in what it represents, the interactive map is quite entertaining and useful. (I found it interesting to look for connections between spikes, sources and U.S. foreign relations.) To know where we"re going, it"s important to know where we"ve been. Being able to visualize an issue, to see how much is where, and coming from who, is important and helpful when trying to imagine a future without those supplies or relationships. Weaning ourselves off a resource we are so evidently addicted to will be difficult, but it will be much easier and more exciting to plan for than the alternative option of panic and scarcity.

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Oil Mon, 12 Jan 2009 11:12:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Choosing-A-Priority.html much lower than last January. Instead of enumerating those that I think merit particular attention, for today I"d like to focus on an over-arching energy policy choice facing the US. The recent flurry of calls for a quick increase in the tax on gasoline highlights the need for us finally to decide whether energy security or climate change constitutes the higher priority for urgent action. Altered circumstances have undermined the natural linkages between these two problems, and the financial crisis and recession make it not just impractical, but undesirable to attempt to tackle both with equal vigor.

During the holidays I received emails from friends and other readers pointing out various op-eds calling for a big increase in US gas taxes. The arguments in favor of such a measure include reducing US oil imports from unfriendly nations and making fuel-efficient cars and other advanced energy technology more attractive for consumers and investors. The current low gas prices would allow such a tax to be imposed with much less pain than only a few months ago. Yet as Tom Friedman"s New York Times column on the subject recognized, this entails an explicit choice between taxing gasoline and taxing the greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change. Friedman has been a consistent supporter of higher gas taxes, and he still comes down on that side of the argument. For many reasons, I disagree, but it"s even more important to choose one strategy or the other than to continue assuming that we can do both, if we wish.

The need for a choice between the two is rooted in our basic energy balance and the trade-offs that a carbon tax or a gas tax would stimulate, and in the potential of alternative energy sources to displace coal, oil, or both. Oil today accounts for 39% of US primary energy consumption and 15% of US energy production--more like 23% if natural gas produced from oil fields is included. Coal makes up another 22% of energy consumption and nearly 33% of production. Simply put, we can"t grow the 1% of current US energy production from wind, solar and geothermal power fast enough to replace the 62% of energy consumption supplied by both oil and coal in the foreseeable future, never mind the enormous problems of technology and capital turnover involved in trying to substitute renewable electricity for the liquid transportation fuels, lubricants and petrochemicals that account for all but a small fraction of our oil consumption. Even doubling current ethanol production, which hinges on as yet uncommercial cellulosic biofuel technology, would only back out around 2% of US oil use, at 2008"s reduced rates. We also need to be clear that putting a price on carbon emissions will have a much bigger impact on our coal use than on our oil imports.

Throughout 2007 and into 2008, as oil prices climbed and concerns about climate change mounted, while the economy remained surprisingly resilient, it was hard to choose between the importance of reducing oil imports and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and it looked possible to do both. Moreover, energy security and climate change appeared positively synergistic, with reductions in oil consumption expected to reduce emissions and emissions-reducing policies seen as cutting oil consumption, as a side-benefit. But while those physical synergies still look attractive, the rapid decline in oil prices has drastically reduced the urgency and near-term economic benefits of tackling our oil dependence, particularly during what is shaping up to be the deepest recession since World War II. That makes the emissions reductions associated with reducing our oil imports more expensive, compared to other reductions.

Taxing gasoline, rather than carbon, would certainly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from our use of petroleum, but it could easily result in largely offsetting emissions increases elsewhere, as industry turned increasingly to coal and natural gas for feedstocks, and as biofuels--which would likely be exempted from the tax increase--would mainly be produced in the near term from food crops that require significant inputs of energy-intensive fertilizer and cultivation. Sales of efficient cars would be helped, no doubt aiding a Detroit that seems certain to be forced to make more of them, as a condition of further federal assistance. However, the accompanying fleet-efficiency gains will occur slowly, as long as total car sales--and thus the total fleet turnover rate--remain depressed by a weak economy.

That brings us to the direct economic impact of a gas tax. Until a federal stimulus is passed and actually reaches consumers and businesses, cheap gas and diesel fuel are the stimulus, to the tune of roughly $37 billion/month compared to July/August 2008 prices. I take suggestions that a higher tax on petroleum products could be made revenue-neutral--that is, returned dollar-for-dollar to consumers/taxpayers through cuts in other taxes--with more than a grain of salt. With all due respect to the incoming Congress, that institution has not demonstrated the requisite spending restraint, faced with the prospect of a major new revenue source, in many years. It certainly wasn"t on display in last year"s debate on the Boxer-Lieberman-Warner emissions cap-and-trade bill.

Although I expect oil prices to recover, once the economy does, the recession presents us with a unique opportunity to begin realigning the entire economy, not just to use less oil as it returns to growth, but to be much less carbon-intensive, overall. With greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector exceeding those from transportation by at least 20%, and with renewable power sources looking much more viable and sustainable than current-generation biofuels, focusing on climate change and the gradual and systematic de-carbonization of the economy now seems like a better priority than "energy independence," which has remained unattainable for more than a generation. It will be hard enough for the Obama administration to determine how aggressively to pursue climate policies in the current environment, without the distraction of a gas-tax debate. And while energy security remains vitally important, in its broader definition, it can be achieved for now through the same strategy of supplier diversification that served us so well after the energy crisis of the 1970s-80s.

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Oil Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:06:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Where-Did-The-Peak-Go.html
Tom Whipple is still pumping out his weekly updates, with Energy Bulletin posting his latest article - The peak oil crisis: July 2008 – a month to remember - and weekly update - Peak Oil Notes - Dec 4.
There is a growing consensus among those who follow such things, that the new high of world oil production (87.9 million barrels a day) reached last July is likely to go down in history as the all-time peak.

This is by no means a unanimous opinion.

The official government forecasting agencies, the IEA and the EIA, have devised rather bizarre scenarios that would allow oil production to ease higher for another 20 years or so. These organizations, or course, are not free agents both being bound by political strictures rather than a search for truth. While the world"s governments are inching closer to public acknowledgement of peak oil, they have many diverse responsibilities such as maintaining the domestic tranquility, fighting various kinds of wars, and providing some semblance of financial stability. Clearly a sudden admission that world oil production had just entered an irreversible decline would not help with these other responsibilities. Optimists and those unwilling to contemplate the ramifications of rapid change are still maintaining that oil production will grow in some mysterious manner for the foreseeable future.

Most students of the subject at first thought that world oil production was going to peak for geological reasons --- the inability to find and produce enough oil to keep our annual consumption of 30 billion barrels increasing. In recent years, "above ground" factors such as wars, nationalistic governments, and failure to invest have become the popular reasons for constraints on increasing world oil production among those who for one reason or another do not like the geologic (running out of reserves) argument.

While all these factors are contributing to the likelihood that from here on out less and less oil will be produced, it seems that the initial decline in production will come because the world economic situation has deteriorated so much that we simply don"t need 87.9 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil anymore.

At the minute, OPEC is scrambling to figure out how to enforce an equitable production cut to drive prices higher again. Current talk is that it will take cuts totaling 3 million b/d or more to balance supply and demand. If reductions on this order actually take place in the near future, then world production which has been declining since July will have started on a downward slope from which it is unlikely to ever recover.

New oil production and refining projects are being cut back right and left due to low prices, lack of demand, and the inability to borrow money. It will take several years for these cutbacks in investment to affect oil production; in the meantime, depletion will take over and cause irreversible declines in oil production in the next five to ten years.

In the three-way struggle among worldwide oil depletion, new oil production projects, and the global recession, we have a pretty good handle on depletion and new projects, but appreciation of the depth and length of the recession is not well understood. What was widely believed last year to be a couple of weak quarters is now generally acknowledged to be the worst economic slump since World War II. Optimists, especially on Wall Street and in Detroit, are saying that by 2010, or 2011, or 2012, the recession should be over and economic growth will return. There is great faith that the world"s governments can manage a recovery by lowering interest rates, pumping trillions of government money into the financial system, loaning money to failing corporations, and instituting massive stimulus packages. Some are not so sure.

Whatever the root causes of our new recession - bad lending practices, leverage, too much debt, lax regulations, or as some believe, high oil prices - it is clear that it is going to be worldwide, serious and will take some time, perhaps years, to work itself out. The last recession of this scope went on for ten years and picked up the name of "the great depression" somewhere along the way.

The role of oil in the nature and duration of the recovery from all this will be critical. Should OPEC succeed in driving oil prices back up to $75 or $100 a barrel by imposing serious restrictions on production, then, as we saw last summer, money will be drained from the recovery into oil producers" coffers, but there will be more incentive to invest in new production. Gasoline prices, however, will climb again and consumers will be back where they were last spring.

"On the Commons" is linking peak oil to "peak hierarchy", asking if "the economic crisis be traced to large, hierarchical institutions that are dysfunctional in an open, networked environment ?" - Not Just Peak Oil, But “Peak Hierarchy,” Too?.
Most of us have heard about the impending arrival of “peak oil,” after which oil supplies will inexorably dwindle, causing all sorts of havoc as societies try to cope and remake themselves. But my friend Michel Bauwens of the Peer to Peer Foundation, recently suggested that we may be approaching another inflection point of equal or greater significance, if we have not already – the arrival of “peak hierarchy.” By this, he meant the time at which distributed organizations become stronger and more versatile than centralized hierarchies.

Traditionalists scoff at the idea that big, familiar institutions are vulnerable. But the events of the past two months might well be taken as a warning of disruptions to come. The fall of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the bailout of AIG and Citicorp, and the impending bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler – and not to mention troubles at dozens of lesser-known but important corporations – might be seen as different aspects of the same financial crisis. But it may make equal or better sense to see the current turmoil as evidence of structural deficiencies of large institutions.

The liquidity problem in financial markets is more accurately described as a failure of social trust. People increasingly don’t believe that their money will be safe with large, once-reliable institutions even when the U.S. Government is providing backup guarantees. That’s why Injecting lots of new money into companies isn’t necessarily improving liquidity. The deeper problem is a lack of trust – and money alone can’t solve that.

Why should we trust large, centralized institutions that are not transparent in their dealings, and that allow well-placed insiders to game the system to their own advantage? There are all sorts of legal and regulatory checks that are supposed to prevent abuses of the system, of course. But when these safeguards are vested with large, centralized institutions that have themselves been compromised and gamed – the credit rating companies, the SEC and other regulatory agencies, Congress itself – then it should not be surprising that fraudulent, self-serving behaviors occur. The financial crisis is simply a confirmation of what many people already knew: we were (and are) caught up in big-time institutional lying (and evasion, spin and denial).

It always makes for better drama to have a Michael Milken, Ivan Boesky or villain who betrayed his duties or the public trust as an individual. But the crisis that we now find ourselves in is not just about a few bad apples (though there are plenty of them!). It’s about institutional failure on a colossal scale supported by pathological cultural norms.

The real problem is getting the economy started again is restoring trust. Existing institutional structures are not trusted. The culture of spin, evasion and lying has become so pervasive, and so institutionalized in the everyday practices of business, that it is hard to imagine re-booting the economy afresh. Everyone has the reasonable suspicion that no one is to be trusted. Everyone clings tightly to his or her money. And the economy stagnates and declines.

Think of the many institutional shams that were, and are, treated as credible: television’s Sweeps Weeks as a gauge of a network’s base audience, EPA’s risk assessments of chemicals, the mainstream press’ pre-war reporting on Iraq, the energy and auto industry’s dismissals of global warming; the safety of subprime mortgage securities and credit default swaps. The list could easily be expanded.

A friend of mine who is trying to raise money for a startup tech company put it this way: “Businesspeople realize that they were lying – and they know the people they were doing deals with were liars. And they know that the other guys know that they had been lying.” How, then, in this rampant culture of deception, the logical endpoint of a laissez-faire market without effective government oversight, does one begin to restore trust?

In a way, it all backs up to George W. Bush. When you lie as a tactic for starting a war and torturing civilians and suspending due process of law – among dozens of other mendacious official policies – and no one holds you to account! – it should not be surprising that leaders of major industries think that they, too, can shave the truth and get away with it. The very idea of responsibility becomes the province of suckers.

It is of a piece, then, that Treasury Secretary Paulson actually proposed a $700 billion taxpayer bailout without bothering to explain or itemize how this unprecedented sum would actually be spent. (Now – surprise, surprise – the congressional Government Accountability Office has found that the accountability mechanisms for the bailout plan are grossly inadequate.) When the Big Three automakers came to Congress, asking for a bailout, they didn’t even take the trouble to describe their plan for rehabilitating themselves or how they would spend the money. And of course, the CEOs all flew into Washington on their vastly expensive corporate jets. Large and insulated from the market, GM staked its fortunes on selling high-profit-margin gas-guzzlers and SUVs for a generation. It reasonably thought it could make the market rather than have to respond to it. Now the bill has come due.

The common denominator of large institutions is their ability to manipulate and escape the on-the-ground realities that lesser mortals must abide by.

Which brings us back to “peak hierarchy.” The vignettes I cite may be explainable by all sorts of industry-specific realities and by the collapse of financial markets. Yet the larger point may be that large, centralized institutions are more brittle and less trustworthy than we may have suspected. And there are increasingly viable alternatives that are smaller and more innovative, flexible and socially attractive.

In a more diversified, modular marketplace, the failure of a company is no big deal. In a concentrated market dominated by a few big players, the incentive structures are all wrong. Why innovate and compete? Why operate transparently? Why work to cultivate social trust? If sheer market power or political lobbying won’t solve a problem (or steamroller over it), glitzy marketing will at least tamp it down.

Large institutions invariably find ways to leverage their powers to serve their own interests and defeat accountability – especially when their overseers (politicians and government agencies) are themselves large institutions who share the same bed. Large companies can often structure their markets and business practices in self-serving ways. They can carry out questionable dealings in the shadows. They can deploy their lobbyists to win government sanction for dubious business practices. And then, if anything goes wrong, they can invoke their sheer size and number of employees, are argue that they are too big to fail. Government must come to the rescue or the consequences for innocent third parties will be too severe.

The second part to this argument about “peak hierarchy” is the alternative: an environment of smaller, more distributed players. Michel Bauwens makes a powerful case for the ascendance of peer production, governance and property. It is not a moralistic case, but a functional one (which happens to have more socially benign and democratically attractive outcomes).

Anthropologists who study evolution believe that once a group of humans becomes larger than 150 people, they need to invent hierarchies in order to structure relationships and assure social trust. What is new about our times – the age of the Internet – is that you can now functionally coordinate small groups of people on a global scale. Social trust doesn’t need to be organized by hierarchical organizations; it can arise from the bottom up and self-organize into small groups that share common values and purposes. Such distributed networks have given us GNU Linux and open source software, Wikipedia, social networking, the Public Library of Science and other open-access journals, and countless other online commons.

This is something new under the sun: a new and functional mode of organizational life.

For the moment, the peer production economy is mostly occurring online, dealing with intangible products like creative works and information. But the social dynamics of peer production are proving to be astonishingly effective in organizing the creative energies of huge numbers of dispersed people. Could it be the template for similar changes in the “real world” of conventional industry? Will its institutional norms of mass participation, transparency and accountability begin to “compete” with hierarchical institutions?

We are already seeing this kind of change. Think Wikipedia vs. Encyclopedia Brittanica. Think how the Obama Internet-driven campaign out-maneuvered McCain mass-media campaign and raised huge amounts from small donors. Think how bloggers, news aggregators and Craigslist are undermining daily newspapers. Think how open source software continues to expand its domain of influence at the expense of proprietary software. Think how small groups of ethnic exiles use the Internet to affect politics in their native countries, or how the record, film and television industries are being challenged by YouTube, Facebook and countless user-driven websites.

The peer production vision is still relatively small and undeveloped, and large institutions remain quite entrenched and powerful. But no one said that the era of hierarchy is over; just that the “peak” may have passed, and that the future belongs to a different kind of logic. There will be denials, just as “peak oil” is still contested by some. But it is an illuminating perspective when considering the deep origins of our current crisis.

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Oil Sat, 06 Dec 2008 00:42:00 -0800
PainlessPump.com :: Oil | Articles http://www.painlesspump.com/Oil/Oil/Scientisfs-Confirm-Chevron-Did-$27-B-of-Damage-to-Ecuador.html An independent panel of scientists has just confirmed the latest report from a court-appointed expert on damages done to Ecuador"s Amazon by Chevron. The company dumped the 18 billion gallons of toxic waste over an area of the Amazon rain forest "roughly the size of Rhode Island." Damages include contaminated groundwater and cancers caused to the people of Ecuador due to exposure hydrocarbons.

They said that any funds awarded by the courts would have to go into cleaning the soil, rivers, streams and groundwater over a 1,700 square mile area. That is, as far as I know, the largest toxic site in the world. And if it only costs shell $27 B to clean it up, I"d say that"s a pretty good number, considering the damage done.

The scientists estimated that the area has had roughly 1,400 more deaths from cancer than could be accounted for by natural causes.

The trial will be ruled sometime in 2009, the Chevron is questioning the validity of the entire Ecuadorian court system (which it once praised, back when they were pleased to use it instead of the United States court system.) We"ll see if they will actually have to pay for the damage they have caused.

Via Market Watch

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Oil Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:56:17 -0800